By Gridiron Guru.
Booms or Busts Part II-
The Gridiron Guru here, this week I am taking a closer glimpse at some of the more risky, yet highly rated players that could eventually wind up under performing and qualifying as bust material. Take this line-up of big-name players, for example. Under normal circumstances, you might say that this is a very strong team, but had your fantasy team resembled this last season, chances are you weren't very successful or even sniffed the playoffs.
QB: D. Culpepper
RB: J. Lewis
RB: W. McGahee
WR: A. Johnson
WR: R. Moss
TE: T. Gonzalez
-So lets get right to it and evaluate some players at the skill positions that warrant the label of “BUST” potential or at the very least, “High Risk Warning," shall we.
Quarterbacks-
Trent Green (Chiefs)- Green was pretty average last year, stats-wise when you consider that he was regarded (and still is to some) as a top 5-8 quarterback in fantasy. He simply didn't post enough big games to be a consistent starter, and at age 36, may be best suited as a solid backup for 06'. Simply put, with a mediocre cast of wide outs to throw to and a stud running back in Larry Johnson, it is pretty clear what the offensive priority in K.C will be this coming season.
Michael Vick (Falcons)- Most fantasy pundits either love the guy or don't trust him one bit. Put the Guru in the latter group. If you're wise you will put yourself there too. Vick is one of the most physically gifted athletes in pro football and can run better then anyone in the league.
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The problem is he plays the quarterback position, and being a fast runner doesn't always translate to being a great passer and Vick has yet to prove that he can put up great numbers as a fantasy starter. He has yet to find a wide out that he can develop a comfort level with and that, alone should caution you from selecting him too early. My advise is to take him as your top backup and try to draft Alge Crumpler as you tight end. He is the primary benefactor of Vick's big games. Any one remember Thanksgiving?
Running backs-
Kevan Barlow (49ers)- Along with “Fragile” Fred Taylor, this guy might make my “All-Century” bust team. Barlow rushed for a meager 581 yards last season scoring just 3 times all year. He has regressed every season and this year faces some real competition for his starting job. The guy to watch on this team is Frank Gore, who could be a super sleeper, especially with Norv Turner as the new Offensive Coordinator. Look what he did with Stephen Davis and LaMont Jordan. When deciding on which of these backs to draft, do yourself a favor and vote for Gore! (The Guru never thought he'd say those words in a sentence).
Ahman Green (Packers)- Let me count the ways. First there is his history of injuries which raises questions about his durability over a sixteen game season. Then there is concern about his tendency to develop the coughs when handling the football. That means it falls out of his hands a lot, to use lay man's terms. Then there is the fact that he will be turning 30 this season and there is the Najeh Davenport factor (if he doesn't get hurt again), and the Gado factor, and the Favre is getting older factor, and the cold weather factor and...well let's just say drafting Green high comes with a little risk...but just a little bit.
Wide Receivers-
Santana Moss (Redskins)- The Moss is always greener on the other side, or something of the sort. At least that is what owners of “Randy” were saying about owners of “Santana,”last season when the latter out performed the former for much of the season. So why does Santana Moss make this list? Namely, because he needs to go out and prove he can do it again. Last season he had a career year. But with an aging Mark Brunell at QB and the additions of receivers, Randle El and Lloyd it almost seems like he is destined to have a fall back type year. Temper your expectations and make him one of your top targets as a #2 receiver.
Lee Evans (Bills)- I'm still not completely sold on Lee Evans as a #1 receiver. Maybe because I hardly ever get to see him play, since the Bills are almost never on TV. Or it could be because they might have the worst quarterback situation in the NFL. (I mean, come on, Craig Nall???) I'll take Jim Kelly, heck give me Jack Kemp!!! Still with this position being as stacked as it is, chances are you won't have to reach in order to draft Evans. Despite the mess at QB, he could be a real bargain as your 3rd receiver. Just not your first.
Tight End-
Tony Gonzalez (Chiefs)- Unless you get him off waivers dirt cheap in the middle of the season, like I did last year, you should avoid drafting Gonzalez too high in this year's draft. Most magazines still have him as the #2 tight end in fantasy, but I have my doubts. I think a few of the younger players at his position have caught up with him and when you consider that much of his supporting cast is on the wrong side of thirty you should at least be a little wary of going after him too early-- just based on reputation. I think he will rebound slightly this year, but I also think he has already had his best seasons as a pro. That will continue to be the case until the Chiefs decide to get him some real help at the wide-receiver position. Until then, he will continue to get double covered often. Maybe LJ can play the slot too.
I hope you find this helpful when trying to decipher between the booms and the busts of the upcoming season. Like in all walks of life, every pick is a gamble, but knowing what hands are winners is a big advantage. The Guru will return next week with more from the world of Fantasy football. Let me also remind you to look for my special article coming out next month, The Art of Fantasy Football. It will help prepare you for your upcoming drafts and will come in handy, especially to those who are new to game this year. I highly recommend that you check it out when it is posted early next month. Until next week, my fellow fantasy freaklings.-GG.